Delivery Estimator v2.0 - Monte Carlo Forecasting

Project name

Remaining stories iStory count - not story points - produces reliable forecasts. Throughput is measured empirically in stories/week. See Glossary.

Story split rate iWork grows when teams start it. 1.0 = no growth. Use the reference below to calibrate based on how well-defined your scope is.

Low (optimistic)

High (pessimistic)

Scope clarity → split rate reference

Well-defined (spec'd)1.0-1.2×

Requirements written · acceptance criteria defined · designs approved · tech approach agreed

Mostly defined1.2-1.5×

Most requirements written · some open questions · rough designs exist · 1-2 tech spikes expected

Exploratory1.5-2.0×

High-level description only · active discovery ongoing · multiple technical unknowns

Very unclear2.0-3.0×

Concept only · no written requirements · R&D phase · scope could change radically

Input unit iThe model always works in weeks internally. 'Per sprint' divides your input by the sprint duration set in Settings.

Worst case /week iThroughput in a hard week - team member sick, unexpected bugs, blocked by dependencies.

Most likely iThroughput in a typical, unremarkable week. The most critical value - be honest here.

Best case iThroughput in an excellent week - no interruptions, well-understood stories, full team capacity.

Project allocation iWhat % of the team's throughput goes to THIS project. Not about sick days - those are already in your throughput values.

80%

Factor Weeks Prob

Start date

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Ready to forecast

Configure your inputs and run the simulation to generate a probabilistic delivery forecast.